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Read e-book online An ounce of prevention, a pound of uncertainty: the PDF

By Jonathan Caulkins

ISBN-10: 0833025600

ISBN-13: 9780833025609

Within the warfare on medications, young ones are at the entrance traces. is simply announcing no security adequate? The authors study the result of well known institution drug prevention courses to figure out how potent they're at decreasing cocaine use and no matter if those courses are cash good spent, compared to drug-enforcement or drug-treatment courses.

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Extra info for An ounce of prevention, a pound of uncertainty: the cost-effectiveness of school-based drug prevention programs

Example text

Prevention's Effectiveness at Reducing Marijuana Initiation 97 C. Relationship between Age of Marijuana Initiation and Lifetime Consumption of Cocaine and Marijuana 105 D. Estimating the Magnitude of the Social Multiplier 115 E. How Prevention's Cost-Effectiveness Varies over Time 131 F. Estimating the Magnitude of the Market Multiplier 139 G. Estimating the Magnitude of the Causation/Correlation Qualifier 143 H. Estimating the Magnitude of the Scale-up Degradation Qualifier 155 I. Prevention's Effect on Heavy Alcohol Use and Cigarette Smoking 163 J.

Also, the comparison is with typical enforcement and treatment programs. We have not attempted to identify innovative enforcement or treatment approaches that might prove more cost-effective than typical programs. Page 11 Chapter Two Effectiveness at Reducing Cocaine Consumption To estimate the effectiveness of school-based prevention programs at reducing cocaine consumption, we multiply together a set of eight factors. In the next chapter, we will divide the product by cost to get cost-effectiveness.

In deference to that, we typically refer to our "best" estimates as "baseline" or "base" or "middle" estimates. We carry all estimates through the entire analysis. We hope that in structuring the analysis the way we have, the sources of uncertainty are obvious and their effect on the bottom line transparent. Effect On Cohort Members Participating in Program We are interested in estimating the quantity or weight of cocaine consumption averted per million program dollars spent. , we can calculate a percentage reduction.

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An ounce of prevention, a pound of uncertainty: the cost-effectiveness of school-based drug prevention programs by Jonathan Caulkins

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